Blood Dominance is a brand new TRV Summoning analytic, intended to help Battle Masters assess the Genetic Strength of TRV Champion lineages with the goal of bringing increased transparency to the TRV summoning process.
Summoning is the process by which TRV champs engage in a dark ritual to combine blood and generate a new NFT.
While fighting traits are cryptic and can only be discerned over time via Wisdom, TRVtools CSRs, and fight performance data, cosmetic traits are immediately evident when the summoned offspring is generated.
The probability of inheriting a trait from either parent depends upon the relative Blood Strength (BS) of each parent. Summoning pairs that are well-matched with regard to blood strength (both parents of high BS or low BS, etc.) will be similarly likely to pass on a trait to the offspring. Alternatively, when parent BS is mismatched (e.g. one parent low BS & one parent high BS), then the parent with higher BS is relatively more likely to pass on the trait.
Critically, the BS value is passed from the Bloodgiver to offspring with 100% probability. Accordingly, we can trace each half-blood champ’s Blood Giver lineage back to the initial pure blood champ that summoned the line. Thus, although fighting and cosmetic traits may vary amongst members of the blood giver lineage, all members will share the same BS value. This means that we can analyze the heritability patterns of traits across the entire lineage to infer whether the BS of that lineage is 'strong' or 'weak'. Again, trait values may vary amongst members of the lineage, but the BS value is shared and constant.
So, practically speaking, how can we determine the BS value of the lineage? The most intuitive approach is to analyze the heritability patterns of cosmetic traits within each lineage. If Lineage #1 summons with Lineage #2 30 times, how often do the offspring exhibit the same armor color as the Lineage #1 parent? How often do they exhibit the same hairstyle or breed?
If progeny of Lineage #1 x Lineage #2 frequently display the traits of Lineage #1 parents, then we can conclude that the BS of Lineage #1 is much stronger than that of Lineage #2. The same inference can be made from each pairwise combination of lineages, whether #1 x #3, #2 x #3, or #69 x #420.
Given a sufficient sample size of summons, we can begin to rank lineages within a Blood Dominance hierarchy that maps to Blood Strength. This is directly analogous to the Elo rating scale, but instead of fight outcomes, lineages are ranked by the relative probability of passing on traits in a pairwise summoning interaction. Summoning pairs comprised of champs of similar Blood Dominance should be equally likely to pass along traits, whereas divergent rankings connote divergent probabilities of passing along traits. Again, this is directly analogous to traditional Elo (just substitute “passing along traits” with “winning a given pairwise interaction”).
Just like Elo, the differences in Blood Dominance amongst lineages translate directly to pairwise inheritance probability on a given summoning interaction according to the equation (assuming Blood Dominance (BD) values are at equilibrium):
Based upon data from the first 4160 summoning events (12,480 pairwise trait heritability comparisons), Blood Dominance will initially use a k-factor of 20. Interestingly, this happens to be the same k-factor that FiveThirtyEight uses to rank NBA teams and has also been deemed optimal for other sports like international soccer and the NFL. By contrast, the Major League Baseball is characterized by a k-factor of around 4. Thus, relative to TRVtools stance Elo (optimal K-factor of 9), summoning data appears to quite less noisy than TRV battle outcomes.
Moving forward, TRVtools will be publishing Blood Dominance rankings on the Summoning, Champ, and Barracks pages. Critically, because the BS value is shared amongst all members of the lineage, the entire lineage can be analyzed as a single entity. In other words, Blood Dominance is calculated at the lineage level. If Champ IDs 40,000 and 40,001 belong to the same lineage (say, ‘Lineage 82’), then the pooled summoning results of both champs will contribute to and update the Lineage 82 Blood Dominance Score.
To help users track these lineages, all champ pages will also now display each champ’s Bloodgiver Lineage. Further, I will also be releasing a Summoning tab, where battle masters can keep tabs of TRV summoning, including a summary of most recent summons and how many champs have been summoned in the current cycle.
These metrics will enable to user to assess how the BS of a given lineage stacks up against the competition. Blood Dominance measures are derived from the heritability patterns of 3 cosmetic traits—Hairstyle (inherited with 70% probability), Warpaint (inherited with 70% probability), and Breed (inherited with 50% probability).
For simplicity, at the current time, these ratings only consider heritability from the direct parents (what TRV calls ‘Trait Strength’) and ignore heritability from champs earlier in the lineage (what TRV calls ‘Genetic Strength’). However, these nuances may be incorporated in future iterations of this analytic. This is a quick-and-dirty first pass at estimating heritability in the world of TRV summoning.
As members of a Bloodgiver lineage produce more offspring, these BS rankings will be updated to reflect the current state of affairs. Just like Elo, you can expect the Blood Dominance Ratings of your champs to evolve rapidly (often with notable volatility). So summon early, summon often, and let TRVtools help you determine how your blood stacks up.