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Nerfed First Strike

Original Twitter post:

@TheRedVillage | 06 MAY 2022 | Nerfed 1st Strike

Across 60k battles, 1st strike equates to a 31.1% reduction in median damage dealt relative to subsequent strikes. BUT the champ that strikes first is more likely to win the battle (53% vs 47%). It’s better to get the first crack.

But could this win probability discrepancy be confounded by the fact that Genesis champs not only strike before Mystics but also have a higher probability of hitting a special attack/defense? No, this result holds up even when both Fighter and Opponent are the same genotype.

Two other notes:

  1. Median damage begins to drop off after ~17 rounds due to the composition of the match. Longer matches tend to be enriched for pairs of champs with weaker attack and/or stronger defense. Attack-centric fighters are less likely to persist this long.

  2. The high variability in median damage in later rounds is attributable to low sample size. Few battles last >25 exchanges. Those that do tend to observe an unusual/unlucky number of misses and/or special defenses. High standard deviation in damage dealt within this group.

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