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Win Probability By Stance

Original Twitter Post:

@TheRedVillage | Win Probability By Stance | 24 MAY 2022

Variation in win probability amongst @TheRedVillage stances: Across >126k entries, only one stance matchup significantly differs from a coin flip: Entries in ‘Balanced’ stance have been more likely to beat entries in ‘Defensive’ (51.7% win prob; p=0.007)… 1/4

Balanced is the default stance, so one hypothesis is that great fighters that perform well in balanced out of the gate don’t test other stances. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. So, Balanced may be enriched for good fighters that would perform even better in other stances. 2/4

This may be the case with Jinxbreacher who has 339 entries in Balanced, 1 in Accurate, 1 in Aggressive, and 0 in Defensive. Suspect some fighters on the leaderboard may have another gear in alt stances. Full discovery could, in turn, balance these win probabilities. 3/4

By contrast, Dire Wolf has been able to top the leaderboard after focusing on Defensive (178 entries), a decision made after undergoing a bit more discovery in Aggressive (29 entries), Accurate (20 entries), and Balanced (5 entries). 4/4

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